I decided to take stock of the various opinions and predictions I've made over the course of the pandemic, and reflect a little on the meta subject of engaging with a complex, rapidly-unfolding situation.
I often see people who genuinely want to minimise their risk of getting Covid, but who end up deferring a little too much judgement to what the government allows them to do. In practice, restrictions have to balance protecting lives from Covid against economic harms, other health harms, enforceability, and comprehensibility.
What started as a short rant on Facebook turned into a full article with graphs and everything... An analysis of the UK grocery retail shortages in the first few weeks of the COVID-19 lockdown, and why it's mostly due to just-in-time supply chains being finely-calibrated, not due to panic-buying.